Global influenza surveillance systems to detect the spread of influenza-negative influenza-like illness during the COVID-19 pandemic: Time series outlier analyses from 2015-2020.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance systems are important in detecting changes in disease patterns and can act as early warning systems for emerging disease outbreaks. We hypothesized that analysis of data from existing global influenza surveillance networks early in the COVID-19 pandemic could identify outliers in influenza-negative influenza-like illness (ILI). We used data-driven methods to detect outliers in ILI that preceded the first reported peaks of COVID-19. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from the World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System to evaluate time series outliers in influenza-negative ILI. Using automated autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series outlier detection models and baseline influenza-negative ILI training data from 2015-2019, we analyzed 8,792 country-weeks across 28 countries to identify the first week in 2020 with a positive outlier in influenza-negative ILI. We present the difference in weeks between identified outliers and the first reported COVID-19 peaks in these 28 countries with high levels of data completeness for influenza surveillance data and the highest number of reported COVID-19 cases globally in 2020. To account for missing data, we also performed a sensitivity analysis using linear interpolation for missing observations of influenza-negative ILI. In 16 of the 28 countries (57%) included in this study, we identified positive outliers in cases of influenza-negative ILI that predated the first reported COVID-19 peak in each country; the average lag between the first positive ILI outlier and the reported COVID-19 peak was 13.3 weeks (standard deviation 6.8). In our primary analysis, the earliest outliers occurred during the week of January 13, 2020, in Peru, the Philippines, Poland, and Spain. Using linear interpolation for missing data, the earliest outliers were detected during the weeks beginning December 30, 2019, and January 20, 2020, in Poland and Peru, respectively. This contrasts with the reported COVID-19 peaks, which occurred on April 6 in Poland and June 1 in Peru. In many low- and middle-income countries in particular, the lag between detected outliers and COVID-19 peaks exceeded 12 weeks. These outliers may represent undetected spread of SARS-CoV-2, although a limitation of this study is that we could not evaluate SARS-CoV-2 positivity. CONCLUSIONS: Using an automated system of influenza-negative ILI outlier monitoring may have informed countries of the spread of COVID-19 more than 13 weeks before the first reported COVID-19 peaks. This proof-of-concept paper suggests that a system of influenza-negative ILI outlier monitoring could have informed national and global responses to SARS-CoV-2 during the rapid spread of this novel pathogen in early 2020.

Comparison of Clinical Features and Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 versus Influenza.

Rationale: No direct comparisons of clinical features, laboratory values, and outcomes between critically ill patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and patients with influenza in the United States have been reported.Objectives: To evaluate the risk of mortality comparing critically ill patients with COVID-19 with patients with seasonal influenza.Methods: We retrospectively identified patients admitted to the intensive care units (ICUs) at two academic medical centers with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or influenza A or B infections between January 1, 2019, and April 15, 2020. The clinical data were obtained by medical record review. All patients except one had follow-up to hospital discharge or death. We used relative risk regression adjusting for age, sex, number of comorbidities, and maximum sequential organ failure scores on Day 1 in the ICU to determine the risk of hospital mortality and organ dysfunction in patients with COVID-19 compared with patients with influenza.Results: We identified 65 critically ill patients with COVID-19 and 74 patients with influenza. The mean (±standard deviation) age in each group was 60.4 ± 15.7 and 56.8 ± 17.6 years, respectively. Patients with COVID-19 were more likely to be male, have a higher body mass index, and have higher rates of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. Of the patients with COVID-19, 37% identified as Hispanic, whereas 10% of the patients with influenza identified as Hispanic. A similar proportion of patients had fevers (∼40%) and lymphopenia (∼80%) on hospital presentation. The rates of acute kidney injury and shock requiring vasopressors were similar between the groups. Although the need for invasive mechanical ventilation was also similar in both groups, patients with COVID-19 had slower improvements in oxygenation, longer durations of mechanical ventilation, and lower rates of extubation than patients with influenza. The hospital mortality was 40% in patients with COVID-19 and 19% in patients with influenza (adjusted relative risk, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-3.63; P = 0.006).Conclusions: The need for invasive mechanical ventilation was common in patients in the ICU for COVID-19 and influenza. Compared with those with influenza, patients in the ICU with COVID-19 had worse respiratory outcomes, including longer duration of mechanical ventilation. In addition, patients with COVID-19 were at greater risk for in-hospital mortality, independent of age, sex, comorbidities, and ICU severity of illness.